Reform voters most likely to overestimate minority ethnic crime figures, study finds

Reform voters are more likely to overestimate the number of convicted killers from ethnic minority groups, according to a new study.

A YouGov survey, comprised of 1,800 people from England and Wales, revealed individuals thought 55% of convicted killers were from an ethnic minority, when the actual figure is 35%.

Among Reform voters, the estimate rose to 70%, making it 10% higher than that of voters for any other party.

People also thought 45% of homicides were committed by white people, compared with 64%.

The research, which was conducted by experts at King’s College London, looked at people’s views of crime as radical right parties are trying to link offending to ethnicity and nationality.

According to the study, published on Monday, people also overestimated the number of foreign nationals in prison. They believed they made up 25% of the prison population, compared with just 12% in reality. 

Respondents also thought foreign nationals committed 30% of sexual offences, compared with an actual figure of 15%. This climbed to 50% among Reform voters. 

Prof Bobby Duffy, of King’s College London, said: ‘There are two buckets of explanations for our misperceptions: how we think and what we’re told.

‘On the former, it’s vital to recognise that misperceptions are partly driven by what we’re worried about. Cause and effect run in both directions, where we inflate the scale of an issue if it’s something we’re concerned about.

‘Reform supporters’ higher concern about immigration and diversity … will mean they’re more likely to give attention and weight to things they see that fit with that view, including crimes being committed by those groups. On what we’re told, they’re also more likely to be seeing media, social media and political communications that emphasise those examples.’

The survey also found the same concerns were affecting views of the justice system. More than half of respondents said ethnic or religious minorities were sentenced differently for crimes and 23% believed they were treated more harshly.  

Duffy said people who believed claims of ‘two-tier justice’ were more likely to question the system and call for radical change.

‘This is important for trust and faith in the system, which is an issue particularly when it’s not justified by the reality,’ he said. ‘We may end up taking actions that are not necessary or effective.’

Meanwhile, the research also highlighted that age had more of an influence on people’s views than ethnicity. Gen Z respondents guessed that white people accounted for 58% of homicides, compared with 35% among baby boomers. 

Duffy added: ‘Our misperceptions are more of a general emotional reaction than careful study of the facts – we’re sending messages about what’s worrying us.’ 

Image: Shutterstock 

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